Modi, Amit Shah "misleading" voters on UP's crime rate: It's lower than most states/UTs, says data site

By Our Representative
A top data analysis site has said that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s and BJP chief Amit Shah’s claim during the Uttar Pradesh (UP) polls that that the state is “number one” in crime has no basis, insisting, “The facts – garnered from the Centre’s own crime database – did not support the assertions made by Modi and Shah”.
Modi made the claim on February 5 and 10, 2017, while BJP chief Amit Shah said this on February 3, 2017.

However, said factcheck.in, “In 2015 (the year for which latest data are available), we found that, compared to UP, 27 states and union territories (UTs) had a higher rate of rapes, 21 had a higher murder rate, 19 had a higher rate of kidnapping and abduction, 16 had a higher rate of riots and 18 had higher theft rates.”

The analysis, carried out by Manoj K, an Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Delhi, graduate and founder of the Centre for Governance and Development, says, Modi’s claim is that UP is “number 1” in crime, with 24 rapes, 21 attempts to rape, 13 murders, 33 kidnappings, 19 riots and 136 thefts every day.

Pointing out Modi’s methodology of calculation itself is incorrect, Manoj T says, “The crime rate is calculated per 100,000 population, and by that measure, there are many states with higher rates. Even considering the ‘per day’ measure, rapes registered in UP were a third of what Modi claimed while attempts to rape registered were 4.7% of his claim”.
The analyst says, “Although figures for murders, kidnappings, riots and thefts in per-day terms are correct with regard to 2015 crime statistics, “Crimes registered per 100,000 people is the appropriate measure, not per day” because “large states are likely to register the highest number of crimes in absolute terms.”
Thus, the analyst says, “UP’s murder rate was 22nd among 36 states and UTs in 2015, down from 2014”, when it was 21st in 2013 and 22nd in 2012. “The murder rate (murders per 100,000 population) in UP has fallen from 2.4 in 2012 to 2.2 in 2015, while the national murder rate has been 2.8 in 2012 and 2.6 in 2015.”

“There were 13 states with a population greater than 10 million with a murder rate higher than UP’s in 2015”, the analyst says.Coming to the Rate of rape, the analyst says, “There were 27 states and UTs with higher rates of rapes than UP in 2015, including 15 states with a population more 10 million”, adding, “The rate of rapes reported in UP rose to 1.6 (per 100,000 population) in 2014, from 1.0 in 2012, but fell to 1.4 in 2015. The national average for rate of rapes in 2012 was 2.1; it rose to three in 2014 and fell to 2.8 in 2015.” 

In kidnapping and abduction, the analyst says, “19 States and UTs had higher rates than UP’s in 2015”, including “13 states with population more than 10 million”, adding, “Kidnapping and abductions in UP rose from 4.3 per 100,000 population in 2012 to 5.8 in 2014, falling to 5.6 in 2015. Nationally, the kidnapping and abduction rate in 2015 was 6.6 per 100,000 population, rising from 3.9 in 2012. In 2015, there were with a higher kidnapping and abduction rate than UP.”

As for rate of riots, the analyst says, “16 States and UTs had higher riots rates in 2015”, including “12 states with population more than 10 million”, though adding, “Riots cases in UP rose to 3.2 per 100,000 population in 2015 from 2.8 in 2012, while the national average declined from 6.2 in 2012 to 5.2 in 2015.”
In thefts, the analyst says, “18 states and UTs had higher rates in 2015”, including 11 “states with a population more than 10 million”. He adds, “Thefts in UP rose from 18.2 per 100,000 population in 2012 to 22.9 in 2015, lower than the national average, which also increased to 37.2 in 2015 from 27.8 in 2012.”