India's unemployment to reach 6.75% in April, highest since July 2017; weekly rate on April 8 was even higher, 7.41%

By Our Representative
India's top data consultancy firm, Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), has estimated that the weekly unemployment rate spiked to 7.41 per cent in the week ended April 8, which is the highest weekly unemployment rate in 78 weeks, or since early October 2016. Pointing out that the monthly estimate are based on different set of crieteria, CMIE says, it would be 6.75 per cent in April 2018, the highest since July 2017.
In an analysis based on the top consultancy firm's data, Mahesh Vyas, its senior expert, has said, while it is true that a solitary spike does not always tell a true story, and it could possibly be an "outlier", the fact remains, the unemployment rate in India was around 7.25 per cent during the first fortnight of April 2018, which suggests that "this unemployment rate is high compared to the levels observed in a fairly long time."
Pointing out that this unemployment rate is "significantly higher than the observed average of around 6.5 per cent in the preceding weeks", the CMIE expert says, this suggests, "the preceding week’s 7.41 per cent does not look like an outlier but, possibly, looks like an indication that the unemployment rate has inched up again."
Noting that the unemployment rate has been "rising since July 2017 when it clocked a mere 3.4 per cent", Vyas says, "The rate rose quickly to 5 per cent by October 2017 and then stabilised around 5 per cent for three months before spurting to 6 per cent in February and March 2018."
The senior expert predicts, "Now, with data for two weeks in hand, it seems poised to rise higher in April. It would be safe to assume that the rate has risen and April is likely to report an unemployment rate that would be the highest since demonetisation."
Pointing towards the type of data on which he has based his analysis, Vyas, who is managing-director and CEO of CMIE, says, "Weekly estimates are a close approximation of the monthly estimates. Weekly estimates are based on a sample of about seven thousand households that provide the employment/unemployment status of nearly 25,000 individuals that inhabit these sample households."
At the same time, he states, "However, there are a few details that one needs to keep in mind while extrapolating weekly estimates of unemployment to monthly estimates. First, weekly estimates are for the week ended Sunday and months don’t necessarily end on Sundays".
Pointing out that this is a "very minor problem", Vyas says, "Secondly, weekly estimates are not adjusted for non-responses and monthly estimates are adjusted for non-responses. This makes the monthly estimates a little more reliable than the weekly estimates. You are justified if you ask, so, why don’t we just adjust the weekly estimates for non-responses."
The answer, according to him, is that "the weekly sample is a little fluid because of operational problems. Survey execution at a household that is supposed to be surveyed in a particular week may have to be shifted to the next week because of a local problem."
"For example", he says, "In the last couple of weeks, internet services were temporarily suspended in many parts of the country to contain the several protests that have erupted. This hampered survey execution temporarily."
Comments the top expert, "As an aside, it is not a good sign when a country has to suspend internet services repeatedly from entire regions. It brings far too many activities to a halt -- including tax filings, regulatory filings, financial transactions and settlement of bills."
Thirdly, and more substantively, Vyas says, weekly estimates are based on "a survey design that uses appropriate weights for rural and urban India at the all-India level. The monthly estimates are based on a survey design that uses appropriate weights for rural and urban India at the state-level. Thus, there is a much greater stratification deployed in the monthly estimates than in the weekly estimates. This again, makes the monthly estimates more reliable than the weekly estimates."
According to Vyas, "The total number of strata used in the monthly estimates is 49. If the responses from any of these is less than a minimum requirement then the data from such strata is not used because they can skew the results. This greater stratification and stringent requirements on the sample make the monthly estimates fairly robust."
Given this framework, says Vyas, Data of the recent past suggest that weekly estimates overestimate the unemployment rate, on an average, by about 50 basis points compared to the monthly estimates. This implies that the 7.25 per cent unemployment rate we see in the first fortnight of April 2018 could well be 6.75 per cent."
Underlining that "even this is significantly higher than than the unemployment rate of 6.2 per cent in March and 6.1 per cent in February", Vyas says, be that as it may, "It is apparent that the unemployment rate which has been rising steadily over the past eight months will continue to rise during the ninth month -- April 2018."

Comments

Green Revolution’s reliance on chemical fertilizers, pesticides contributing to Punjab's health crisis

By Bharat Dogra, Jagmohan Singh* Punjab was once synonymous with robust health, particularly in its rural areas, where farmers were known for their strength and vitality. However, in recent years, reports from these villages tell a different story, with rising cases of serious health issues, including cancer. What led to this decline? The answer lies largely in the erosion of good nutrition, once a hallmark of Punjabi village life. The health of a population is closely tied to its nutrition, and Punjab's reputation as a provider of high-quality nutrition has suffered greatly. The loss of biodiversity in agriculture has led to a decrease in the variety and quality of crops, resulting in poorer nutrition. Pulses, a key source of protein, have seen a steep decline in cultivation due to the disruption of traditional farming practices by the Green Revolution. This has had a detrimental effect on both soil and human health. Although pulses are still available in the market, they are exp

Swami Vivekananda's views on caste and sexuality were 'painfully' regressive

By Bhaskar Sur* Swami Vivekananda now belongs more to the modern Hindu mythology than reality. It makes a daunting job to discover the real human being who knew unemployment, humiliation of losing a teaching job for 'incompetence', longed in vain for the bliss of a happy conjugal life only to suffer the consequent frustration.

Will Left victory in Sri Lanka deliver economic sovereignty plan, go beyond 'tired' IMF agenda?

By Atul Chandra, Vijay Prashad* On September 22, 2024, the Sri Lankan election authority announced that Anura Kumara Dissanayake of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP)-led National People’s Power (NPP) alliance won the presidential election. Dissanayake, who has been the leader of the left-wing JVP since 2014, defeated 37 other candidates, including the incumbent president Ranil Wickremesinghe of the United National Party (UNP) and his closest challenger Sajith Premadasa of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya.

Bid to isolate India globally 'to drive it even closer' to long-time ally, Russia

By Vidya Bhushan Rawat* The relationship between India and Canada has plunged to unprecedented lows, with both governments seemingly exploiting the situation for their domestic political gains. Canada has long been home to several anti-India elements, with little action taken against them. When Prime Minister Indira Gandhi was assassinated on October 31, 1984, some of these secessionist groups openly celebrated and issued further threats, particularly from Canada and Britain. While Britain eventually acted to contain such elements in the interest of maintaining ties with India, Canada did not. Over the years, India has sought the extradition of 23 criminals residing in Canada, but the Canadian government has mostly dismissed these requests, claiming these individuals have no criminal records in their country.

A Hindu alternative to Valentine's Day? 'Shiv-Parvati was first love marriage in Universe'

By Rajiv Shah The other day, I was searching on Google a quote on Maha Shivratri which I wanted to send to someone, a confirmed Shiv Bhakt, quite close to me -- with an underlying message to act positively instead of being negative. On top of the search, I chanced upon an article in, imagine!, a Nashik Corporation site which offered me something very unusual.

Will Bangladesh go Egypt way, where military ruler is in power for a decade?

By Vijay Prashad* The day after former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina left Dhaka, I was on the phone with a friend who had spent some time on the streets that day. He told me about the atmosphere in Dhaka, how people with little previous political experience had joined in the large protests alongside the students—who seemed to be leading the agitation. I asked him about the political infrastructure of the students and about their political orientation. He said that the protests seemed well-organized and that the students had escalated their demands from an end to certain quotas for government jobs to an end to the government of Sheikh Hasina. Even hours before she left the country, it did not seem that this would be the outcome.

Influence of mining corporations on policy makers 'leading to' erosion of democracy in Odisha

By Bhabani Shankar Nayak* Odisha is rich in high-quality natural resources, including iron, bauxite, chromite, and manganese ore, as well as a variety of other valuable minerals like coal, limestone, dolomite, tin, nickel, vanadium, lead, graphite, gold, and gemstones. This resource-laden state is responsible for 57% of India’s iron ore production, hosting over 60 operational mines and more than 150 square kilometers under exploration for further mineral deposits.

How pseudo-liberals 'went wrong' in judging DY Chandrachud as Chief Justice India

By Shamsul Islam* DY Chandrachud took charge as Chief Justice of the Indian Supreme Court (SC) on November 09, 2022. On this occasion many of the pseudo-liberals who claimed to be defenders of the democratic-secular polity of India manifested great happiness. They declared that the time of SC being an appendage of the RSS-BJP government headed by PM Modi was over as Justice Chandrachud was a liberal judge committed to the democratic-secular polity of India.

NHRC failing to 'effectively address' human rights violations: NGO groups tell UN-linked body

By Rajiv Shah In a joint submission to the Global Alliance of National Human Rights Institutions' (GANHRI's) Sub Committee on Accreditation (SCA), two civil society groups -- All India Network of NGOs and Individuals working with National and State Human Rights Institutions (AiNNI) and Asian NGO Network on National Human Rights Institutions (ANNI) -- have said that the National Human Rights Commission's (NHRC's) accreditation, deferred in 2016, 2023, and 2024, fails to find space on its website.

Search This Blog