India's unemployment to reach 6.75% in April, highest since July 2017; weekly rate on April 8 was even higher, 7.41%

By Our Representative
India's top data consultancy firm, Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), has estimated that the weekly unemployment rate spiked to 7.41 per cent in the week ended April 8, which is the highest weekly unemployment rate in 78 weeks, or since early October 2016. Pointing out that the monthly estimate are based on different set of crieteria, CMIE says, it would be 6.75 per cent in April 2018, the highest since July 2017.
In an analysis based on the top consultancy firm's data, Mahesh Vyas, its senior expert, has said, while it is true that a solitary spike does not always tell a true story, and it could possibly be an "outlier", the fact remains, the unemployment rate in India was around 7.25 per cent during the first fortnight of April 2018, which suggests that "this unemployment rate is high compared to the levels observed in a fairly long time."
Pointing out that this unemployment rate is "significantly higher than the observed average of around 6.5 per cent in the preceding weeks", the CMIE expert says, this suggests, "the preceding week’s 7.41 per cent does not look like an outlier but, possibly, looks like an indication that the unemployment rate has inched up again."
Noting that the unemployment rate has been "rising since July 2017 when it clocked a mere 3.4 per cent", Vyas says, "The rate rose quickly to 5 per cent by October 2017 and then stabilised around 5 per cent for three months before spurting to 6 per cent in February and March 2018."
The senior expert predicts, "Now, with data for two weeks in hand, it seems poised to rise higher in April. It would be safe to assume that the rate has risen and April is likely to report an unemployment rate that would be the highest since demonetisation."
Pointing towards the type of data on which he has based his analysis, Vyas, who is managing-director and CEO of CMIE, says, "Weekly estimates are a close approximation of the monthly estimates. Weekly estimates are based on a sample of about seven thousand households that provide the employment/unemployment status of nearly 25,000 individuals that inhabit these sample households."
At the same time, he states, "However, there are a few details that one needs to keep in mind while extrapolating weekly estimates of unemployment to monthly estimates. First, weekly estimates are for the week ended Sunday and months don’t necessarily end on Sundays".
Pointing out that this is a "very minor problem", Vyas says, "Secondly, weekly estimates are not adjusted for non-responses and monthly estimates are adjusted for non-responses. This makes the monthly estimates a little more reliable than the weekly estimates. You are justified if you ask, so, why don’t we just adjust the weekly estimates for non-responses."
The answer, according to him, is that "the weekly sample is a little fluid because of operational problems. Survey execution at a household that is supposed to be surveyed in a particular week may have to be shifted to the next week because of a local problem."
"For example", he says, "In the last couple of weeks, internet services were temporarily suspended in many parts of the country to contain the several protests that have erupted. This hampered survey execution temporarily."
Comments the top expert, "As an aside, it is not a good sign when a country has to suspend internet services repeatedly from entire regions. It brings far too many activities to a halt -- including tax filings, regulatory filings, financial transactions and settlement of bills."
Thirdly, and more substantively, Vyas says, weekly estimates are based on "a survey design that uses appropriate weights for rural and urban India at the all-India level. The monthly estimates are based on a survey design that uses appropriate weights for rural and urban India at the state-level. Thus, there is a much greater stratification deployed in the monthly estimates than in the weekly estimates. This again, makes the monthly estimates more reliable than the weekly estimates."
According to Vyas, "The total number of strata used in the monthly estimates is 49. If the responses from any of these is less than a minimum requirement then the data from such strata is not used because they can skew the results. This greater stratification and stringent requirements on the sample make the monthly estimates fairly robust."
Given this framework, says Vyas, Data of the recent past suggest that weekly estimates overestimate the unemployment rate, on an average, by about 50 basis points compared to the monthly estimates. This implies that the 7.25 per cent unemployment rate we see in the first fortnight of April 2018 could well be 6.75 per cent."
Underlining that "even this is significantly higher than than the unemployment rate of 6.2 per cent in March and 6.1 per cent in February", Vyas says, be that as it may, "It is apparent that the unemployment rate which has been rising steadily over the past eight months will continue to rise during the ninth month -- April 2018."

Comments

Loktantra Bachao Abhiyan raises concerns over Jharkhand Adivasis' plight in Assam, BJP policies

By Our Representative The Loktantra Bachao Abhiyan (Save Democracy Campaign) has issued a pressing call to protect Adivasi rights in Jharkhand, highlighting serious concerns over the treatment of Jharkhandi Adivasis in Assam. During a press conference in Ranchi on November 9, representatives from Assam, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh criticized the current approach of BJP-led governments in these states, arguing it has exacerbated Adivasi struggles for rights, land, and cultural preservation.

Promoting love or instilling hate and fear: Why is RSS seeking a meeting with Rahul Gandhi?

By Ram Puniyani* India's anti-colonial struggle was marked by a diverse range of social movements, one of the most significant being Hindu-Muslim unity and the emergence of a unified Indian identity among people of all religions. The nationalist, anti-colonial movement championed this unity, best embodied by Mahatma Gandhi, who ultimately gave his life for this cause. Gandhi once wrote, “The union that we want is not a patched-up thing but a union of hearts... Swaraj (self-rule) for India must be an impossible dream without an indissoluble union between the Hindus and Muslims of India. It must not be a mere truce... It must be a partnership between equals, each respecting the religion of the other.”

A Marxist intellectual who dwelt into complex areas of the Indian socio-political landscape

By Harsh Thakor* Professor Manoranjan Mohanty has been a dedicated advocate for human rights over five decades. His work as a scholar and activist has supported revolutionary democratic movements, navigating complex areas of the Indian socio-political landscape. His balanced, non-partisan approach to human rights and social justice has made his books essential resources for advocates of democracy.

Right-arm fast bowler who helped West Indies shape arguably greatest Test team in cricket history

By Harsh Thakor* Malcolm Marshall redefined what it meant to be a right-arm fast bowler, challenging the traditional laws of biomechanics with his unique skill. As we remember his 25th death anniversary on November 4th, we reflect on the legacy he left behind after his untimely death from colon cancer. For a significant part of his career, Marshall was considered one of the fastest and most formidable bowlers in the world, helping to shape the West Indies into arguably the greatest Test team in cricket history.

A Hindu alternative to Valentine's Day? 'Shiv-Parvati was first love marriage in Universe'

By Rajiv Shah The other day, I was searching on Google a quote on Maha Shivratri which I wanted to send to someone, a confirmed Shiv Bhakt, quite close to me -- with an underlying message to act positively instead of being negative. On top of the search, I chanced upon an article in, imagine!, a Nashik Corporation site which offered me something very unusual.

Will Left victory in Sri Lanka deliver economic sovereignty plan, go beyond 'tired' IMF agenda?

By Atul Chandra, Vijay Prashad* On September 22, 2024, the Sri Lankan election authority announced that Anura Kumara Dissanayake of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP)-led National People’s Power (NPP) alliance won the presidential election. Dissanayake, who has been the leader of the left-wing JVP since 2014, defeated 37 other candidates, including the incumbent president Ranil Wickremesinghe of the United National Party (UNP) and his closest challenger Sajith Premadasa of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya.

Unlike other revolutionaries, Hindutva icon wrote 5 mercy petitions to British masters

By Shamsul Islam* The Hindutva icon VD Savarkar of the RSS-BJP rulers of India submitted not one, two,or three but five mercy petitions to the British masters! Savarkarites argue: “There are no evidences to prove that Savarkar collaborated with the British for his release from jail. In fact, his appeal for release was a ruse. He was well aware of the political developments outside and wanted to be part of it. So he kept requesting for his release. But the British authorities did not trust him a bit” (YD Phadke, ‘A complex Hero’, "The Indian Expres"s, August 31, 2004)

Outreach programme in medical education: Band-aids for compound fractures

By Amitav Banerjee, MD* Recently, the National Medical Commission (NMC) of India, introduced two curricular changes in medical education, both at the undergraduate and the postgraduate levels, ostensibly to offer opportunities for quality medical education and to improve health care accessibility among the underserved rural and urban population.

Will Bangladesh go Egypt way, where military ruler is in power for a decade?

By Vijay Prashad* The day after former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina left Dhaka, I was on the phone with a friend who had spent some time on the streets that day. He told me about the atmosphere in Dhaka, how people with little previous political experience had joined in the large protests alongside the students—who seemed to be leading the agitation. I asked him about the political infrastructure of the students and about their political orientation. He said that the protests seemed well-organized and that the students had escalated their demands from an end to certain quotas for government jobs to an end to the government of Sheikh Hasina. Even hours before she left the country, it did not seem that this would be the outcome.

Search This Blog