Energy demand by 2050 to go up by 4 times: Natural resources expected to become unmangeable

By Shankar Sharma*

ORF Weekly Energy News Monitor has carried a credible analysis of India' energy profile in the context of the ever escalating multiple global crises. If, as mentioned in the analysis, if India's developmental paradigm takes it to the status as the first or second largest energy consumer, the ecological implications to our people can be horrendous in a BAU scenario.

For example the analysis says: "India’s per person energy consumption is close to the average in Southern African countries (excluding South Africa) of 25.5 GJ and well below the world average of 77 GJ. If energy consumption growth were a race, India would count as a determined competitor slowly approaching the finishing line (achieve per person energy consumption of about 100 GJ required for high development index [HDI])..."

That will be about a 4 times increase in per capita energy consumption, and for a total population which may be more than 150 crore by 2050. The total energy demand by 2050 can be more than 4 times the present energy demand.

The question that should haunt our planners is: how sustainable will such a demand/ supply scenario be, assuming that India will be able to meet such a huge demand growth without facing major calamities between now and 2050. In a business as usual (BAU) scenario the pressure on our natural resources, which is already high, can expected to be unmangeable.

Civil society groups cannot afford to ignore such a scenario, even if our planners cannot be seen to have the required level of dedication/ commitment to plan for such a futuristic scenario. We should do all that is feasible to persuade our authorities to diligently consider such projections for the near future, and to take all steps to address the associated concerns.

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*Power & Climate Policy Analyst

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